30 March 2012. PenzaNews. Recent developments in China including intensification of inner-Party struggle point to some problems in implementation of the present policy. Realizing severity of the current situation the Chinese authorities have recently expressed the need for changes in the socio-political system of the state. However, democratic reforms are unlikely to be on the Chinese agenda. This is the opinion expressed by Bhavna Singh, a Research Officer in the China Research Program at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.

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“Stability, political and economic reform and improvement in social justice remained issues of major concern during the session of China’s National Political Council (CNPC) held from 5–14 March 2012. Without these, the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao maintained, China could yet again witness a debacle similar to that of the Cultural Revolution. Yet, proponents of democracy argue that the comments made by Wen Jiabao in the closing session of the NPC are a mere distraction and Chinese leaders show no clear intent towards reforms,” the analyst said.

Moreover, Bhavna Singh added that at a time when international criticism is at an all time high pillorying China for not implementing democratic reforms despite lip-service by its leaders, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is hard pressed to maintain the symbolism of a united leadership.

“In the current leadership struggle two political factions are apparent within the CCP: a “populist faction” of the Chinese Communist Youth League headed by Hu Jintao — seeking strong leadership, strong government and redistribution of wealth, and on the other hand — an “elitist faction” led by former president Jiang Zemin or more famously “the Shanghai clique” asking for maintenance of Chinese economic power driven by exports and centered around the coast, largely implying control over resources within a small coterie of CCP members,” a Research Officer at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies said.

From her point of view, Xi Jinping, a member of the “elitist faction” is likely to become President and Li Keqiang is going to be Vice-president, though some speculate Wang Qishan as his competitor.

“The rest of the seven seats on the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) have now become matter of heightened speculation and debate. The provincial party chiefs from Guangdong Province, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing and Inner Mongolia will be some likely contenders,” the expert believes.

Meanwhile, Bhavna Singh expressed confidence that the purported smooth transition blueprint seems to be coming under severe strain.

“The fragility of the CCP’s hold on power was exposed during the NPC session where almost 700 thousand security guards were deputed to safeguard the 5 thousand attendees. The attempted defection by Bo Xilai’s (Party Secretary of Chongqing) deputy to the US has raised concerns over conspiracies being hacked by the pro-reform sections of the CCP to oust the other faction. The factionalization within the Party also seems to have been extended to the PLA as reports surfaced suggesting a possible military coup in support of Bo Xilai. Under such circumstances, maintaining the unity within the CCP remains their top most priority,” she said.

Moreover, according to the analyst, the current political transition shows a backward momentum of Chinese politics as these are more indicative of feudalization of their structures rather than an advance towards democratization.

“Though, one could argue that linearity of progress need not necessarily be judged by an endorsement of democracy by any country, but the momentum of Chinese politics with factionalization of the PLA and the Party does not bid well for a state which strives to posit a unitary political image,” the expert noted.

According to her words, many international observers see today’s CCP as the “world’s most successful failure” (Yang Chengjun) with or without reform. And yet the Party continues to fascinate political leaderships across the world by the mere strength of its delivery, irrespective of its authoritarian nature.

“Recent political developments suggest that the Chinese state is under significant internal and external pressure to maintain a semblance of unanimity. There is a high likelihood that this will propel it to resort to stricter controls over the population and the use of brute force cannot be ruled out,” Bhavna Singh said.

In addition, she noted that internal reports from China suggest that the candidatures are being judged on the basis of their pliability with the US leadership.

“This points to the fact that Sino-US relations will be accorded top-priority in China’s political set up. As for India and its other South Asian neighbors, the internal squabble in China provides a much needed distraction and respite on issues like the South China Sea and the Sino-Indian border, and an opportunity which these countries should utilize, to put it in the Chinese verbiage — “build capacities,” even though for a short while,” the analyst concluded.

Bhavna Singh is a Research Officer in the China Research Program at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies and a Doctoral candidate at the Chinese division in the Centre of East Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi.

She completed her MPhil in Chinese studies, M.A. in Modern History at JNU and B.A. in History Honours at Lady Sriram College, New Delhi.

Her work focuses on Chinese Nationalism and China’s foreign policy with regards to the US, Japan and South Asia.