25 April 2012. PenzaNews. Climate change is probably the most serious problem in the history of human science and researches from different countries are trying to find its solution. Past warming has been measured, continued future warming is inevitable. The questions is how quickly humanity can reduce emissions because this will decide how much bigger the problem that people have created and continue to feed, will ultimately become. Alexander Ochs, Director of Climate and Energy Program at the WorldWatch Institute shared his vision of the situation with news agency “PenzaNews.”

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“The scientific picture is not pretty. It is more and more likely that we are creating a catastrophe without predecessor in human history and the window to prevent it is closing quickly,” the analyst stated.

Furthermore, he reminded that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a scientific body that compiles and reviews work of thousands of climate scientist from around the world, stated in its 2007 report that the “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” as evidenced in observations of global average air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.

“The IPCC found that warming over the hundred years from 1906–2005 was 0.74°C. Data that is more recent finds an even greater increase of 0.9°C since the mid-1950s,” Alexander Ochs noted and added that most of this warming occurred since the 1970s.

According to his words, 10 of the past 12 years became the warmest years ever observed on record since 1880.

“Global sea level rise was 17 cm in the last century, and the rate of sea level rise is increasing — the rate of the last decade was nearly double that of the last century,” the expert said.

However, according to the analyst, new peer-reviewed science and technology articles suggest that the impacts of climate change in many areas of the world are not advancing linearly: profound changes are already occurring and models project even greater changes for the remainder of the 21st century.

Moreover, Director of Climate and Energy Program noted that there is also strong evidence linking the increase in weather extremes such as heat waves and precipitation extremes in the last decade to human-caused climate change.

“A recent study by the Royal Society projected the impacts of climate change in two scenarios – 2°C and 4°C global average temperature increase over pre-industrial levels,” he said.

The 2°C level is the internationally recognized limit for avoiding catastrophic climate change. However, the expert believes that on our current path the chance to stay below this level is quickly running out.

“The 4°C scenario is becoming increasingly likely, and warming could be even higher. Moreover, a recent study from the Australian National University’s Climate Change Institute found that a 6°C increase is likely unless strong action is taken in this decade,” the analyst emphasized.

It should be noted that conclusions of most scientists about the possible consequences of global warming are disappointing — negative impact will affect many aspects.

“First of all it is increased water stress: 410 million people will experience an increase in water stress in the 2°C scenario; in the 4°C scenario — 15% of the world population will experience water stress and 840 million will experience an increase in water stress. Also the amount of global land area experiencing drought at a given time will increase from 1 to 30%,” Alexander Ochs said.

Furthermore, the expert noted that in the 2°C scenario 32% of land currently used for crops will become unsuitable. In the 4°C scenario 50% become unsuitable while 20% of the world’s colder lands become suitable for cultivation.

“Warming will cause sea level rise: 0.35 meter sea level rise by 2100 under 2°C scenario, resulting in a 15-fold increase in populations experiencing coastal flooding. In the 4°C scenario, sea level rise ranges from 0.5 to 2 meters, depending on whether accelerated ice melt occurs. Even with just 0.47 meter in sea level rise, the population exposed to coastal flooding will increase 30-fold,” the analyst stated.

Ecosystems will also suffer a significant loss: in the 2°C scenario, all coral reefs will be bleached and 20% of the world’s species will be at risk of extinction. In the 4°C scenario, coral reefs will be extinct and 40% of the world’s species will be at risk of extinction.

“Global warming will also cause increase in number of destructive weather events: in the 2°C scenario, the flood-affected population increases to 211 million people per year, compared to 544 million people annually in the 4°C scenario,” Alexander Ochs noted.

Meanwhile, there is little doubt that most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is due to human activities.

“Even in 2007–2009 when there was an unusually deep decline in solar output, global surface temperatures continued to increase,” the expert emphasized.

Despite the publicity of projected negative effects of global warming, humankind, according to the analyst, has not taken sufficient action to address this problem.

“International negotiators at the UN Climate Change Conference in Durban in 2011 made some progress, but left much work to be done. In a recent blog, we pointed out the uncertain nature of the Durban mandate,” Alexander Ochs said.

At the same time, Director of Climate and Energy Program reminded that signatories of the Kyoto Protocol agreed to enter a second commitment period for reducing their greenhouse gas emissions, extending the treaty terms through 2017 or 2020. This symbolically salvaged the agreement — the only existing climate treaty with internationally binding reduction targets.

“A newly created body, the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, will be in charge of developing “a new protocol, another legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force” that would be applicable under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change — the birth document of international climate negotiations,” he said and added that participating countries did not, however, come to an agreement on binding targets or provide clarity regarding how countries intend to cut emissions.

Meanwhile, The Cancun Agreements established the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as the new operational entity for the convention’s financial mechanism. After a year of technical work by the Transitional Committee, the Durban decision provides a clear yardstick for how to operationalize the GCF over the next year. However, what Durban failed to clarify is the scale and sources of financing, as well as funding priorities.

“Meantime, the renewable energy sector has experienced significant growth in recent years. Between 2005 and 2010, the total global capacity of many renewable energy technologies — for example, solar PV, wind, CSP, solar water heating and biofuels — grew at average rates between 15–50% annually – accounting for approximately half of all new electric capacity added in 2010,” Alexander Ochs noted.

At the same time, the expert believes that the growth of renewable energy has been driven by a combination of falling costs and a range of government support policies helping drive massive investment. According to his words, the number of countries with climate change mitigation policies, renewable energy targets or support policies in place for renewable energy doubled in 2005–2011.

“Nevertheless, in order to have a 90% chance of avoiding dangerous climate change, greenhouse gases concentrations, according to the IPCC, need to be stabilized at a level that limits average temperature increase to 2°C, which is roughly equivalent to stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide at 450 ppm,” he stated.

However, a growing number of countries — mostly vulnerable ones and small island nations are calling for an even stricter standard of 350 ppm.

“This means that global greenhouse gases emissions will need to peak before 2015 and be reduced to 50% of their 2000 level by 2050; if we take no additional action to curb emissions, this will be impossible,” Director of Climate and Energy Program said.

The IPCC states that required reductions by Annex I Parties of the Kyoto Protocol in 2020 for a stabilization scenario at 450 ppm have been estimated to be between by 25–40%, and 80–95% by 2050 relative to 1990.

“The report of Nicholas Stern on the economics of climate change estimates that to reach the 450 ppm scenario, Non-Annex I Countries should also reduce their CO2 emissions by 15–30% by 2020, and 50% in 2050 relative to 1990 levels,” the expert noted.

Nevertheless, the analyst believes that encouraging signs point to a paradigm shift: many examples around the world show that carbon emissions are not necessarily related to a nation’s development. For example, Japan’s economy is significantly less reliant on the emission of CO2 than the United States, despite a similar living standard.

“We need to change the way we approach the relationship between the economy and the environment. Concepts like Green Growth, Low Emissions Development, Sustainability; new ways of measuring human wellbeing challenge traditional focus on pure GDP growth. The Rio+20 conference will catalyze the development of alternative indicators to measure well being rather than just economic growth,” Alexander Ochs said.

According to the expert, this year the United Nations Secretary General launched the Sustainable Energy for All initiative to bring about concrete action which will lead to the achievement by 2030 of the three objectives: RE could supply half the world’s energy needs by 2030 while also providing electricity to millions of people currently without access; this will require simultaneous development of renewable technology and energy efficiency, for example, through the use of passive-solar lighting, heating, thermal storage and distributed systems that reduce loss during transmission.

“Worldwatch also sees the need for transformation in the way the world produces and uses energy to avoid catastrophic consequences of the climate change,” the interviewee concluded.

Alexander Ochs is Director of Climate and Energy at the Worldwatch Institute in Washington, D.C. He leads a growing team of researchers, is a member of the Institute’s management team, a chief editor of the ReVolt blog.

He is a co-editor of three books, director of two documentary films, author of numerous scholarly articles, and frequently contributor to public media. Alexander Ochs currently acts as President of the Forum for Atlantic Climate and Energy Talks (FACET), senior fellow at the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University, and adjunct lecturer in George Washington University’s Sustainable Urban Planning Program.

In 2011, he received the Sustainable Future Award of the Austrian Academic Forum for Foreign Affairs. In 2012, he has been appointed to a high-level commission evaluating the French National Research Agency (ANR).