21 May 2013. PenzaNews. According to preliminary data, the opposition party Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) won thumping victory in May 11 elections in Pakistan, giving its leader a chance to become prime minister for a third time. Nawaz Sharif has already declared victory, saying that he got “the opportunity to once again serve the people.” He comes back to power 14 years after a military coup drove him into exile — but is he any wiser? Famous journalist and military historian Gwynne Dyer tried to find answers to this question in his article “Can Nawaz Sharif steer Pakistan out of crisis?” published in the foreign press.

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“Almost all of the seats won by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Party in last Saturday’s election were in the province of Punjab, which has more people than all of Pakistan’s other provinces combined,” the article says.

In the opinion of Gwynne Dyer, that weakens the legitimacy of Nawaz Sharif’s victory, but with the support of some candidates who won as independents, he will have no trouble in forming a majority government.

“The question is: what will that government do?” the expert emphasizes.

From his point of view, this is a good question, because Pakistan, which is a nuclear-armed country that borders with India, Afghanistan and Iran, in the view of some observers, is fairly close to being a “failed state.”

“Everybody knows that Nawaz Sharif is conservative, pro-business, and devout — during his second term, he tried to pass a constitutional amendment that would have enabled him to enforce Shariah law — but he hasn’t been tremendously forthcoming about his actual plans for his third term. And some of the things he did say have caused concern in various quarters,” Gwynne Dyer notes.

According to him, the US is most worried with his declaration that Pakistan should end its involvement in the US-led “war on terror”; and the army is unhappy about his proposal that the government should negotiate with the Pakistani Taleban rather than just fighting them.

The observers are also wondering what Nawaz Sharif will do about the economy.

“The country’s balance of payments is in ruins, and it cannot meet its foreign debt obligations without negotiating new loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Those loans would come with onerous conditions about balancing the budget and fixing the tax system, and they wouldn’t come at all without American support,” the analyst explains.

According to him, Pakistan is technically a middle-income country, but during the outgoing government’s five years in office power shortages grew so acute that most regions are facing power outages for up to 12 hours a day; and millions of vehicles fueled by natural gas have been immobilized by gas shortages.

“The country desperately needs foreign investment, but the plague of Islamist terrorism frightens investors away,” the expert emphasizes.

Meanwhile, the United States will be withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan next year, and Nawaz Sharif will have to decide what he wants to do about the Taleban in that country.

The new government of the country will face a number of challenges, the solution of which, according to the analyst, may lie in the incoming prime minister’s determination to improve relations with India.

“India has seven times Pakistan’s population and a booming economy, and it long ago lost its obsession with the agonies of Partition in 1947 and the three wars with Pakistan that followed,” the expert notes.

Nevertheless, the Pakistan Army continues to be obsessed with the “threat” from India — in large part because that justifies its taking the lion’s share of the national budget.

“In each of his previous terms, Nawaz Sharif tried very hard to make peace with India, but was thwarted both times by the Pakistani Army. The current military chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, is due to retire at the end of this year, and this will give Sharif a chance to replace him with someone less committed to perpetual confrontation with India. Then many things would become possible,” the analyst believes.

According to him, an end to the military confrontation would open the door to large-scale Indian investment in Pakistan, including pipelines bringing oil and gas from Iran and Central Asia.

“It would let Pakistan cut the military budget down to size. And it would end the army’s tacit support for the Taleban in Afghanistan,” Gwynne Dyer thinks.

In his opinion, the Taleban will inevitably be part of any post-occupation government in Afghanistan, but without Pakistani support they will have to strike a deal with other forces rather than just taking over.

“That outcome would greatly mollify Washington and make it easier for Islamabad to get new loans from the World Bank and the IMF. It would also make it easier for the government to negotiate some kind of domestic peace settlement with the Pakistani Taleban. Then, maybe, Nawaz could finally get the Pakistani economy back on track,” the analyst notes.

“It is a long string of ifs, but nobody else on the Pakistani political scene seems to have a better plan,” Gwynne Dyer concludes.

Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif is a Pakistani politician and industrialist, the President of Pakistan Muslim League-N political party.

He was born on 25 December 1949.

In 1981–1985, he served as Finance minister of Punjab province.

In 1985–1990, he was a Chief Minister of Punjab.

In 1990, Nawaz Sharif was elected Prime Minister of Pakistan for the first time.

In 1993, he was persuaded to resign office.

In 1997, he again won the general election and became prime minister for the second time. Then he began to actively strengthen the power of the Pakistani government and entered into a confrontation with the military elite of the country.

In 1999, Nawaz Sharif tried to dismiss the commander of the armed forces of Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf, but was overthrown in a coup himself.

In 2000, Nawaz Sharif and his relatives were expelled from the country for ten years.

In August 2007, Pakistan’s Supreme Court recognized the right of Nawaz Sharif to return home.

In September 2007, he came back to Pakistan, but was arrested on charges of money laundering. A few hours later he was again sent abroad.

In November 2007, he returned home and joined the political struggle against Pervez Musharraf who won the presidential election in October.

In a vote in February 2008, the Pakistan People’s Party led by Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif’s party won the most votes in parliament and formed a coalition government.

In August 2008, the union of parties forced the resignation of Pervez Musharraf, and then the coalition fell apart.

In September 2008, Asif Ali Zardari was elected President of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif became his main political opponent.