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European Parliament elections showed growing mistrust to idea of united European government

11:59 | 06.06.2014 | Analytic

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6 June 2014. PenzaNews. The European Parliament elections on May 22-25 were marked by overall turnout increase and rise in popularity for the Eurosceptics who oppose the processes of European integration, say members of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in a series of articles titled “Explaining the EP election results – A 7-country cheat sheet” which was published on their website.

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The turnout in the European Union increased since the previous elections in 2009. For example, about 43% citizens voted in France, while Germany has seen the first turnout rise since 1979 at 48%. The amount of voters also increased in Spain due to Catalonians mobilized on secession. However, voter activity decreased in some member states like Poland and Bulgaria.

Among the fractions of the European Parliament, the European People’s Party won the first place (29.4%), staying in the lead despite losing a number of seats. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats was second (25.1%), and Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe was third (7.9%). “The Greens/European Free Alliance,” “European United Left/Nordic Green Left” and “European Conservatives and Reformists” got 6.9%, 6.1% and 6% of the seats respectively.

The main distinguishing feature of these elections was the rise of the Eurosceptics. Their numbers increased in Austria, Germany, Sweden, Finland and Greece, and they got first places in the United Kingdom and France.

According to François Godement, ECFR Senior Research Fellow, the most remarkable achievement of those who oppose European integration is the victory of French Eurosceptics represented by the National Front (FN) led by Marine Le Pen. FN outflanked both leading political parties in the country, the Socialist Party (PS) and the UMP, and got 25% of the vote.

However, according to the analyst, very negative economic and social conditions, such as low economy growth, large debts, employment issues and large taxes, clearly influenced the results, as well as the negative attitude of the French towards the EU.

He describes that polls that took place a few weeks before the parliamentary elections indicated a loss of trust in the European Union and its institutions.

“54% do not trust the European Parliament, 55% do not trust the Commission. Yet 83% of the French want a “united Europe”, and 59% favor the monetary union and the euro,” the expert emphasizes.

He also notes that internal issues dominated the European Parliament election, because it was held two months after a major defeat of PS on the municipal elections and was influenced by a large financial scandal in which the UMP, France’s main Conservative party, was involved. Other topics that were addressed during the debates were austerity and immigration, while external issues were left almost completely unmentioned.

François Godement sets the success of the National Front against the failures of France’s other political groups.

“The biggest loser is the Socialist Party (PS, 14.3%) and its allies, the Leftist Front incorporating the Communists (FG, 6.4%) and the Europe Ecology party (EELG, 9%). President Hollande’s ‘majority’ has fallen to 30% of voters. The conservative UMP also saw a significant loss, coming in at 20.2%. However, this setback comes from its split with UDI-Modem, the pro-European center group, which got 10% of the vote: allied in 2009, the two groups won 30% of voters,” the expert recalls.

In conclusion, François Godement points out that the country’s politicians consider the election results both as a warning for Europe and as a signal for reforms of the economy.

In his turn, Josef Janning, ECFR Senior Research Fellow, points out that the German elections attracted high public attention, even though no grand topics and major controversies were involved.

This year’s election, as the analyst mentions, was the first one with no threshold, which was cancelled by the Constitutional Court in February 2014. The debates that sparked high interest in the society were devoted to a wide range of topics, from social and unemployment issues to the Ukrainian conflict and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

The ruling parties were victorious after the elections, while the Liberals failed to come back to the political stage.

“The Christian Democrats (35.3%) suffered slight losses (-2.6%), whereas the Social Democrats celebrated one of their largest gains ever from one election to the next (up 6.5%), though still with a modest overall result (27.3%). The Greens remained just above 10%, losing 1.4%, the (also EU critical) Linke remained at its 2009 level (7.4%),” Josef Janning clarifies.

In his opinion, the main news of the elections is the rise of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).

“A truly Eurosceptic party stood for election for the first time in Germany, and it seemed certain AfD would succeed even with the original threshold still in place. Throughout 2014 their rating had been at 6% or more, on Election Day they received 7% or 7 seats in the EP, drawing about 500.000 votes from Merkel’s party,” the expert notes.

In his opinion, the election results made the perspective of closer-knit relationships within the Europe much harder to reach due to member-states focusing on EU issues locally.

“The effect of EU-wide populism, however, will be of greater significance. It will lead to more reluctant governments in the European Council, seeking to demonstrate their sovereign control over EU-matters,” the analyst emphasizes.

The elections were marked by unexpected results in other EU member-states as well. For example, Piotr Buras, journalist and ECFR expert, writes that the EP election results in Poland were predictable and paradoxical at the same time.

“Not surprisingly for the pollsters, the two largest parties came out on top – Donald Tusk’s ruling Civic Platform and the main opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. [They got] a similar percentage of votes (respectively around 32 and 33 percent) and the same number (19) of seats in the European Parliament,” he points out.

According to Piotr Buras, the Tusk followers managed to hold their position by showing activism at the EU level, while PiS benefited from the failures of its main competitors on the right.

However, at the same time he emphasizes the two paradoxes during the European Parliament elections, one of them being the rise of the Congress of the New Right, which got 7% of the vote and four seats in the EP.

“In a country in which the support for the EU is the strongest in Europe (around 80 percent) the main winner of the EP election is a party whose leader (a well-known provocateur and folkloristic veteran of Polish politics Janusz Korwin-Mikke) openly declares the he wants to destroy the EU, welcomes the annexation of Crimea by Russia, and runs a highly xenophobic, anti-feminist campaign. This radically anti-mainstream party, which merges economic libertarianism with an extremely nationalistic and anti-EU rhetoric, won Poland’s protest votes,” the expert writes.

The other paradox, in his opinion, is the fact that despite the largely Europhile attitude of the Polish society, “Your Movement” headed by Janucz Palicot – the only openly pro-EU political party – was the main loser of the election.

“It did not win a single seat in the EP and with 3.7% its political future is highly uncertain,” Piotr Buras remarks.

In his opinion, the party got worse results than its main competitor on the left, the Alliance of Democratic Left (5 seats, around 10%).

The expert thinks that the atmosphere between the two leading political parties remains tense, while the Congress of the New Right will have to defend its position on the next elections to the Polish Parliament in 2015.

In addition, increased numbers of Eurosceptics caused shifts in previously stable political party systems of the EU member-states. For example, Hans, Kundnani, ECFR research director, highlights the fact that this election was the first one for the UK since 1910 in which victory was achieved not by Conservative or Labour parties, but by another political force – the United Kindgom Independence Party (UKIP) who actively pushes for the state’s secession from the European Union.

The expert says that UKIP won 27.5% of the vote, which is much more than 16.6% in 2009 or 3% in the general election in 2010. The Labour party came second with 25.4%, and Conservatives ended up third with 24%. The Liberal Democratic Party, the most “pro-European” political group in Europe, took just 7% of the vote and lost almost all EP seats.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage called the result an “earthquake”. According to him, such results were caused not only by the growing popularity of the Eurosceptics, but also by internal conflicts within their opponents.

Hans Kundnani thinks that the results of the UK EP election seem to confirm a shift to a four-party system and may disturb the plans of the Prime Minister David Cameron.

“While Cameron finds himself under even greater pressure than before from UKIP and Eurosceptics within his own party, he may also find it harder to win German support for his attempt to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU,” the expert explains.

The election in Italy was another one marked by a rise of a new political force. According to Jose Ignacio Torreblanca, Head of ECFR Madrid Office, the main news on the country’s political stage is “PODEMOS,” which split away from an “Anti-capitalist Left” fraction and has big influence from the Latin American left.

“With 5 seats, they claim to work ‘to stop Spain being a colony of Germany and the Troika’,” he notes.

The analyst suggests that the rise of “PODEMOS” occurred during the decrease in trust in the traditional leaders of the run for the EP. Specifically, the governing People’s Party (PP) lost a lot of electorate after three years of austerity, corruption scandals and massive unemployment, though they kept the first place with 26%. At the same time, the Socialist Party, the second largest in Spain, could not keep some of their votes with them and took just 23% of the vote, ending up on the road to an internal crisis.

“Spain has traditionally had a strong bi-partisan system, in which the two main parties enjoyed more than 70% of the vote. But in this election, they have only managed to get 49% of the vote. Citizens have thus sent a clear message that they are tired of the two-party system,” Jose Ignacio Torreblanca emphasizes.

While the elections in Spain and the UK signified the rise of new forces on the political stage, the Bulgarian election, according to Dimitar Bechev, ECFR Senior Research Fellow, became a vote of no confidence for the current government led by the Bulgarian Socialist Party.

“It comes after a year of popular protests spurred by the controversial appointment of a media tycoon to head the national security agency, in the wake of national elections last May,” he suggests.

The expert points out that after the elections dominated by the Ukrainian crisis issue, the most noticeable victory was achieved by the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria party (GERB), which obtained 54% of the vote. The ruling party suffered a stunning defeat and was left on the second place with 18.5%, even though the Movement of Rights and Freedoms, its coalition partner representing ethnic Turks and Muslims, kept a stable share of 14%.

Eurosceptics from “Ataka” party lost badly, getting just 3%, while “Bulgaria without Censorship” (BwC) took 10.7% and two seats in the European Parliament. According to Dimitar Bechev, this shows that hard euroscepticism in Bulgaria is in decline.

“Ataka’s failure can be traced to its association with the current government and the split of the ultranationalist vote amongst several competing lists,” he thinks.

The expert suggests that election results strongly polarized the internal political climate of the country.

“The Bulgarian Socialist Party suffered an overwhelming defeat by the opposition, which might shake up the cabinet or even lead to a resignation. Tied up at home, Bulgaria’s government is unlikely to be pro-active in Brussels,” Dimitar Bechev suggests.

While the election in Bulgary has shown mistrust towards the current authorities, a completely opposite situation occurred in Italy. The election, as Silvia Francescon, Head of ECFR Rome Office, points out, became a sudden and overwhelming victory for the ruling Democratic Party (PD) and its leader Matteo Renzi, Prime Minister of the country: the political group earned above 40%.

“It won everywhere: from North to South of the country, and huge margins of victory in his Florence and centre. The PD received 3 millions votes more than the most recent national elections,” the expert emphasizes.

Silvia Francescon also highlights the low results of other political groups within the country, such as Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (16%) and Mario Monti’s “Scelta Civica” (4%).

In her opinion, failure of internal competitors and decreased support for PD’s allies at the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats – particularly in France and Spain – make head of PD the strongest progressive leader in Europe.

“François Hollande’s and David Cameron’s poor showing give Matteo Renzi a strong hand to negotiate more with Merkel, and he can and probably will ask for an Italian high representation in the European institutions,” Head of ECFR Rome Office concludes.

The European Parliament, founded in 1957, is one of the seven institutions of the European Union, which is considered the most powerful legislative body in the world. It represents the EU population as a whole. The meetings of the Parliament take place in Strasbourg, as well as Brussels and Luxembourg.

Originally, the EP was elected by the parliaments of EU member-states. Since 1979, however, the European Parliament is directly elected every five years by universal suffrage.

Seven fractions were represented in the European Parliament after the 2009 elections. Among them are the European People’s Party, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, “The Greens – European Free Alliance,” “European Conservatives and Reformists,” “European United Left – Nordic Green Left,” and “Europe of Freedom and Democracy,” as well as a number of independent MEPs (Non-Inscrits).

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