5 September 2011. PenzaNews. Probability of new wave of “color revolutions” in the countries of Central Asia on the analogy with the Near East is widely discussed in mass media and in the Internet.

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According to some information the USA use different human rights and humanist organizations which stir up nationalist public mood. They spread information about facts of genocide of ethnic Uzbek people in Kirgizia, critical materials about the position of official Tashkent, information about pursuit of opposition from working government of Kazakhstan in mass media and social network services.

It is important that the informational campaign displays against the background of activity of Islamite in the south of Uzbekistan and social-economic instability in Kirgizia.

Independent experts suppose that forces of the USA which stand behind the activity of Kirghiz nonofficial organizations want to use their potential to initiate disturbances in the countries of Central Asia. The new wave of “color revolutions” can follow after those disturbances.

Meanwhile according to some experts there are no real premises for changing political regimes in Central Asian countries like in Near East.

Political scientist, ex-ambassador of Azerbaijan in Russia, president of Center of political and economic research “Far Centre” Hikmet Hadjy-zadeh is sure that democratic reforms will start in Central Asia, but much later.

He said: “I think that various unrests will take place there one day. But today there is no any evidence of approaching of “color revolutions” new wave. It’s rather closed region. But I think the situation is quiet still”.

According to Hikmet Hadjy-zadeh stress-induced injury among the population of Central Asian countries can appear after change the leaderships of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan Islam Karimov and Nursultan Nazarbayev because of their age.

The expert said: “The political system is not democratic there, so the change of the power can entail disturbances among the population and emergence of different movements”.

Political scientist, member of scientific union of Carnegie Moscow Center Alexei Malashenko noticed that it was worth to forget about “color revolutions” in Central Asia because the mentality of people living in this region differed from it in the Near East.

He explained that unstable situation in some CIS countries and the Near East became the reason for strengthening of political systems in the countries of Central Asia.

According to him people are afraid of open conflicts. That’s why legacy regimes will remain there for some time.

Russia and Wider Europe Programme coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations Jana Kobzova noticed in the interview to PenzaNews that the political situation in Middle Asia considerably differs from the Near East.

She said: “If to take for example Egypt dictatorial regime was going there for almost 40 years. The same is in Libya and Tunisia. It passed not much time after countries of Central Asia left USSR. There were revolutions; there was a change of government. But these process were going not long ago”.

In her opinion the other thing sustaining the preservation legacy order is the standard of life in Central Asia.

Jana Kobzova said: “People are very poor there but they live better of the north of the region. It seems to me that people in Central Asia which don’t like the regime often choose to leave. That is the protest. It was a “color revolution” in Kirgizstan in 2005. So the other countries in the region remember and avoid it”.

She also said that serious danger for countries of CIS located in Central Asia is in replacement of leaderships.

Russia and Wider Europe Programme coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations pointed: “Such political crises can happen in the countries where the leaders are not young. For example in Uzbekistan”.

She added that the situation in Middle Asia is not stable and quiet at all. But the reasons of instability differ greatly from those in Near East.

Jana Kobzova resumed: “Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kirgizia are extremely unstable. But such situation appeared there not because of open movements which call upon to overthrow the government. Ideas of radicalism and extremism are strong enough there. But, I’ll repeat, this peculiar not to all Central Asian countries. For example the situation in Kazakhstan is very stable”.

“Color revolutions” is a term that was widely used to describe related movements that developed in several societies in the CIS and Balkan states . The term has also applied to a number of revolutions elsewhere, including those ones in the Middle East.

Participants in of the “color revolutions” have mostly used nonviolent resistance. Such methods as demonstrations, strikes and interventions have been intended protest against governments seen as corrupt or authoritarian, and to advocate democracy, and they have also created strong pressure for change. The color revolutions are notable for the important role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and particularly student activists in organizing creative nonviolent resistance.

Such movements have had a measure of success, as for example in Serbia's Bulldozer Revolution (2000); in Georgia's Rose Revolution (2003); and in Ukraine's Orange Revolution (2004). In most but not all cases, massive street protests followed disputed elections, or requests for fair elections, and led to the resignation or overthrow of leaders considered by their opponents to be authoritarian.