US presidential election not to bring major changes in political course of country
1 May 2016. PenzaNews. International experts continue to monitor the election campaign in the United States where on 8 November 2016 the voters will elect the 45th President of the country.
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To date, the ex-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, representing the Democratic Party and Republican billionaire Donald Trump are the frontrunners for US presidential nominations.
These candidates got almost equal support in a national head to head matchup, the George Washington University Battleground Poll says. In a theoretical general election, it puts Hillary Clinton ahead at 46 to 43, with 11 percent of the voters undecided.
According to Charles Henry, Professor Emeritus of African American Studies at the University of California at Berkeley, there is more interest in the election campaign than usual because neither leading candidate has secured the nomination.
“Usually by the time big states like New York and California have their primaries, the nomination has already been secured. The favorites are also unusual in that one [Donald Trump] has no political experience at all while the other [Hillary Clinton] has a great deal of political experience,” the expert told PenzaNews.
In his opinion, Hillary Clinton has a better chance of winning unlike Donald Trump because many voters find the Republican too unpredictable to be president.
“However, the Democrats will be concerned that the young voters that Bernie Sanders has inspired will come out to support Hillary Clinton in the fall,” Charles Henry said.
Moreover, from his point of view, the election campaign has highlighted some real divisions in the Republican Party that may be difficult to heal.
“It may lead to the formation of another party in the near future,” the analyst added.
Meanwhile, Aaron Kall, Director of Debate, University of Michigan, shared the opinion that Donald Trump is much inferior to Hillary Clinton but stressed that a lot can change in six months.
“The Republican attracts extremely large and enthusiastic crowds for his speeches. He rarely uses a teleprompter and often goes off the cuff or wings a good portion of his speeches. This is received very well by his supporters and feeds the narrative of him not fitting the traditional mold of a politician and being spontaneous. Donald Trump uses a blue collar and simplistic vocabulary during speeches while attempting to connect with his audience and sound like an everyman. This should be difficult for him to accomplish given his great wealth, but he’s proven very successful at relating to working class Americans. As Donald Trump pivots toward the general election, he’s likely to become a more disciplined speaker and increase his reliance on teleprompters,” the debate expert said.
According to him, Hillary Clinton’s speeches are much less attended and she’s not a naturally gifted speaker in front of large audiences.
“She’s much better on the debate stage as compared to the campaign trail. Much of her time lately has been spent attacking Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, who provides a good foil to her Democratic base supporters. Female voters are a core part of Clinton's constituency and a good portion of her speaking remarks are specifically aimed toward courting this demographic. She consistently touts her experience as First Lady, United States Senator, and Secretary of State. What Hillary Clinton lacks in speaking skills, she makes up for with great retail politicking. She works a rope line well and successfully engages voters at campaign events while on the trail,” Aaron Kall said.
Commenting on Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning, he reminded that she is still dealing with an ongoing FBI and Justice Department investigation regarding the sending and receiving of classified emails while she was Secretary of State.
“Hillary Clinton’s major task will be to garner the support of Bernie Sanders’ supporters, who could abstain from voting rather than backing the Democratic nominee. No matter who emerges victorious, the political divisions and partisanship are sure to continue in the United States for the foreseeable future,” the analyst added.
In turn, Steve Taylor, Associate Professor, Department of Government, American University, pointed to a serious intraparty contention.
“With no one candidate having the required majority, the candidates who are in second place are emboldened. They know that there is a possibility that the front-runner can be deposed in favor of another candidate. The belief that they might be that alternative nominee has emboldened the current runners up. They are now fighting hard against the frontrunners of their respective parties, and that is why the atmosphere is so contentious today,” the expert said.
In his opinion, on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is in a better position to win the nomination.
“She understands this, and is therefore focusing her attention on the general election and refraining from attacking Bernie Sanders. On the Republican side, Donald Trump is not quite as close to the nomination as Secretary Clinton is. The runners up still pose a credible threat, and are likely to prevent him from winning that first-ballot victory at the convention. Trump is therefore still focusing on his primary opponents, against whom his is leveling verbal attacks,” Steve Taylor said.
From his point of view, at this point it certainly looks as if the November race will be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
“Even if Donald Trump does not receive the required 1237 votes before the convention, he will be close to that number, so close that the pressure will be on the Republican Party to give him the nomination,” the expert said.
He also added that Donald Trump, or whomever the Republican nominee will be, may benefit from the current political trends in the US.
“After eight years with a president from the Democratic Party, and with the negative ratings Barack Obama is receiving in the polls, it is hard to imagine that the Democrats will win a third term, something they have not done in 76 years,” Steve Taylor explained.
However, should Donald Trump win the election, the United States may have a more difficult time acquiring international support in future military endeavors, he said. While Donald Trump has high approval ratings among many US conservatives, he does not have high ratings among citizens of the US allied countries.
Meanwhile, Andrew Samuels, Professor of Analytical Psychology at the University of Essex and a psychoanalyst who writes on politics from a psychological perspective, said that no candidate will be able to provide a significant improvement in the foreign policy of the country.
“For non-Americans, the problem is that, whoever wins, the warlike and opportunistic US foreign policy will continue. For Americans, there will be no letup in the massive economic and racial injustice,” the British expert said.
“One must remember that, behind the populism of Donald Trump, there is a good deal of ant-state idealism. Behind the socialism of Bernie Sanders, there is an opposition idealism. This makes it seem as if Hillary Clinton is the middle ground candidate. But she is not. She is owned by the big money forces and the foreign policy hawks,” Andrew Samuels added.
He also noted that Donald Trump is not such an unusual figure in US politics and has a lot in common with Louisiana governor and senator Huey Long and the 45th Governor of Alabama George Wallace.
“My point is that, if you look at Hillary Clinton’s record, in some ways she is very much a right wing candidate. So, though she may be a safer choice than Trump, she is not the great liberator who will smash the great economic inequality,” the analyst added.
In turn, Edward Lozansky, President and Founder of the American University in Moscow, said that the so-called establishment of the Republican Party is still in search of an alternative to Donald Trump.
“Every day their task becomes more difficult, but they do not give up. However, the chances of Ted Cruz and John Kasich are completely hopeless in spite of their union,” the expert said.
From his point of view, Donald Trump is the most prominent figure of the election campaign.
“He puts forward new radical ideas both in domestic and foreign policy. Hillary Clinton is a continuation of past failed policies, especially when it comes to foreign policy,” the analyst said.
However, he did not make any forecasts concerning the outcome of the popular vote in the United States.
“I find it difficult now to separate wishful thinking from reality, but I will not only vote for Donald Trump, but also do everything possible for him to win,” Edward Lozansky stressed.
According to him, these elections demonstrate significant differences in the interest of United States citizens and representatives of party elites.
“We are going to see how strong the democratic principles – which suggest people’s victory – are in modern America,” the analyst concluded.
The 2016 United States elections scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, will be the 58th quadrennial US presidential election.
The entire election campaign in the United States that lasts about a year and a half may be divided into four stages: registration of candidates, the primaries, party nomination and national elections.
The participants of the presidential race from the Democrats are Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, from the Republicans – Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich.