28 May 2019. PenzaNews. For the first time since 1994, the candidate from the Turkish ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has lost mayor election in Istanbul, and despite the election board’s decision to cancel the voting results, Turkey has already entered a new historical period. This is stated by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) Senior Policy Fellow Aslı Aydıntaşbaş in her article “The battle of Istanbul will shape Turkey’s future”, published in a number of foreign media.

Photo: Zumrasha, Wikipedia.org

“It came as a surprise to many international observers when, on 31 March, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost local elections in many of Turkey’s major cities, including Istanbul and Ankara. A city of 16 million people, Istanbul has been the centrepiece of AKP’s financial system and social networks since 1994 – when a young Erdogan became mayor and started his march to power. Few suspected that Erdogan could lose an election there. Yet the vote not only took Istanbul from Turkey’s ruling party but also challenged the notion that Erdogan was invincible and would remain president for life,” the article says.

Even more surprising was the winner, the author believes.

“Despite the government’s near-total control over media coverage and its self-serving use of state resources, a relatively unknown politician from the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP), Ekrem Imamoglu, defeated Binali Yildirim, an AKP heavyweight and a former prime minister of Turkey – albeit with a lead of less than 1 percent of the vote. Imamoglu patched together the type of rainbow coalition the Turkish opposition has been dreaming of for more than a decade, gathering secularists, liberals, nationalists, Kurds, and even conservatives around the idea of a more liveable city. To Erdogan’s politically divisive rhetoric, he responded with a mantra of social cohesion – and it seemed to work,” Aslı Aydıntaşbaş notes.

However, according to her, the battle of Istanbul is not yet over – it’s only beginning.

“On 6 May, after a full month of lobbying, the AKP persuaded Turkey’s electoral board to void the Istanbul result due to alleged irregularities – once again proving wrong those who thought Turkey still had independent institutions beyond Erdogan’s reach,” the analyst says.

She believes that the decision to annul the vote was a travesty of justice, and whatever happens in the next election, Turkey has already entered a new period.

“The new election, scheduled for 23 June, is likely to turn into another referendum on Erdogan’s rule. Because his power grab has offended so many voters, pollsters predict that the underdog, the 48-year-old Imamoglu, is starting the new electoral race a few points higher than where he left off. The CHP’s strategy will be to sustain the delicate balance between secularists, conservative dissidents, and more than one million Kurdish voters, comprising roughly 11–12 percent of the voting public, who are upset about Erdogan’s alliance with the hard-line Nationalist Movement Party and his threats to eradicate Syrian Kurdish administrations on Turkey’s borders,” the expert says.

According to her, throughout the last campaign, Imamoglu reversed the sense that Erdogan and the AKP would win no matter what. At a pep rally on the night of the election board’s annulment decision, Imamoglu said that “everything will be all right” and this phrase has instantly become a slogan for the opposition, she notes.

Meanwhile, in her opinion, there is a curious discrepancy between Turkish and foreign analyses of elections in Turkey.

“Most international analysts view Erdogan as an undefeatable figure and assume that he would not let Istanbul slip out of his grasp. But such assumptions have been proven wrong in several previous elections. Far more vulnerable than his strongman image suggests, Erdogan is under pressure due to external challenges from Russia and Syria, and to Turkey’s tense relations with the West,” the expert says.

“Turkey certainly has an illiberal system and an uneven playing field in elections, which are marked by government pressure on the business community, the media, and opposition figures. But the voting process itself is transparent enough at polling stations. Political parties dispatch representatives to the stations, while vote-counting at each of Istanbul’s 31,000 or so ballot boxes takes place under the gaze of party officials and interested citizens,” the author explains.

In her opinion, Imamoglu has a good chance of winning again if he can keep to the moral high ground and avoid offending the Kurds and disgruntled conservatives he needs to bolster the secularist vote.

“There is already speculation in Turkey that Erdogan will engage in a foreign military adventure, such as a new incursion into northern Syria or a confrontation with Cyprus over natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, in the run-up to the election, aiming to consolidate his base. There is also fear that political tension in the country will lead to street demonstrations or the type of chaotic atmosphere that emerged after the June 2015 general election, when Erdogan’s party lost its majority in parliament and pushed for a new vote,” Aslı Aydıntaşbaş says.

However, in her opinion, there is a possibility that nothing of that kind will happen before 23 June.

“Like his rival Imamoglu, Yildirim must strike a delicate balance to create a winning coalition. The challenge for AKP will be in regaining the conservative Kurdish vote, which it lost because of its nationalist policies, and in appealing to AKP dissidents who feel their party is on the wrong path,” the analyst says.

“An even bigger challenge will be in explaining away Turkey’s beleaguered economy, which is in a recession and suffers from high unemployment. The value of the lira has already declined by 17 percent since the beginning of this year; a foreign adventure might push more heavily indebted Turkish companies towards bankruptcy,” the author explains.

According to her, Ahmet Davutoglu and Abdullah Gül plan to spearhead political parties that will challenge Erdogan’s one-man regime.

“Imamoglu, who may well become the secular rival of Turkey’s strongman in the next presidential elections, is on the rise. If, on top of that, the Istanbul government changes hands – with the opposition gaining control of the municipality’s 9.5 billion dollars budget and its subsidiary companies – Turkey’s political trajectory could change,” Aslı Aydıntaşbaş explains.

At the same time, in her opinion, Erdogan has long been a master of flexible coalitions.

“To reverse his declining fortunes, he could distance himself from his ultranationalist allies, attempt a pivot to Europe, or try to reopen long-delayed talks with imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan – in the hope that a kinder, gentler image will appeal to some Kurdish voters. […] But, given the popular outrage at the electoral board’s decision, it is unclear whether the government’s timid attempts to draw Kurds away from the opposition or its laser focus on the Istanbul campaign will help the AKP regain its foothold in the city,” the expert says, stressing that the time remaining before the mayoral election, “is a long time in Turkish politics – but not long enough to solve the country’s problems.”